Diwali online sales set to hit $15 to 16 billion, up 25%, says Redseer
Redseer expects 25 per cent growth, the strongest festive run-up in about five years, with the estimate covering the full lead-up to Diwali.
Written with AI assistance from the sources listed below, then checked against them and reviewed by an editor. How our newsroom works
Diwali online sales in India are on course to reach $15 to 16 billion in the 30 to 35 days before the festival, according to Redseer Strategy Consultants, as reported by Outlook Money. That is roughly a quarter more than last year, and it would be the strongest pre-Diwali run for e-commerce in five years.
What the Diwali online sales forecast says
Business Today said the projected 25% rise would be the fastest growth in five years, citing Redseer. It added a caveat. The $16 billion estimate covers the whole festive run-up, and Diwali day on its own is only a slice of it.
Key numbers
- $15 to 16 billion: forecast turnover for the 30 to 35 day pre-Diwali window (Outlook Money).
- 25%: expected growth, the fastest in five years (Business Today).
- $38 billion: first-half 2026 turnover, up about a quarter year on year.
- $90 billion: the size the market is expected to cross this calendar year, with growth of 22 to 24 per cent.
- 16%: the share handsets are expected to hold in 2026, down from 19% in 2025.
Background: the festive season and quick commerce
Handsets are losing ground. They made up around 19 per cent of online sales in 2025, and Outlook Money said that share should drop to 16 per cent this year. Quick commerce is filling part of the gap. The segment reached about $9 billion in the first half of 2026 and nearly doubled for the third year running, BW Retail World reported.
Redseer expects the festive season to draw 180 to 185 million shoppers. Last year’s festive sales were $12.5 billion, according to the same report.
Who is affected
Buyers, sellers and delivery workers feel the volume first. Because the forecast tracks online orders only, spending in physical shops comes on top.
What happens next
Final tallies arrive after the festival, and last year’s $12.5 billion is the yardstick. For more business coverage, see our Business and Startups section.
A forecast of this size means more orders, more delivery jobs and sharper competition between marketplaces and quick-commerce apps in the final days before Diwali. Mobile phones are losing share, so sellers of grocery and everyday goods stand to gain most.